Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 36.643693 43.472913 51.018493 59.945737 70.189387 81.545328 95.055367
2024-10-20 29.086758 38.762935 50.519883 65.726084 84.727951 107.533941 136.803993
2024-10-27 21.173865 31.080062 44.089088 62.153341 86.273901 117.022612 158.776669
2024-11-03 17.882815 28.387506 43.066966 64.617526 94.897073 135.294561 192.498878
2024-11-10 15.770530 26.806805 43.079394 68.125227 104.846863 155.711963 230.239575
2024-11-17 13.970403 25.295590 42.833725 71.001658 113.893643 175.295019 267.968599
2024-11-24 11.956914 23.051995 41.082927 71.263459 118.916331 189.295083 298.516672
2024-12-01 9.885174 20.319534 38.124286 69.179654 119.996556 197.366245 320.710553
2024-12-08 8.592180 18.721029 36.779725 69.451890 124.617217 210.858203 351.571543
2024-12-15 7.620549 17.542543 35.973461 70.466187 130.400179 226.370359 386.262788
2024-12-22 5.960288 14.693642 31.758752 65.038621 124.898498 223.534008 391.984554
2024-12-29 5.395619 14.004811 31.473145 66.587487 131.356086 240.308394 429.707872
2025-01-05 4.437768 12.380702 29.361284 64.941881 132.847516 250.294636 459.354260
2025-01-12 4.303933 12.651729 31.178468 71.157001 149.302513 287.096174 536.418782
2025-01-19 3.377050 10.766939 28.138121 67.332370 146.744419 290.855332 557.991722
2025-01-26 3.059736 10.360761 28.261055 69.972465 156.682159 317.276993 620.083762
2025-02-02 2.847626 10.188317 28.884942 73.728632 169.099727 348.941929 693.147501
2025-02-09 2.617006 9.903847 29.191296 76.807446 180.391196 379.213486 765.366079
2025-02-16 2.274338 9.186302 28.307562 77.087609 185.941056 399.063565 819.801016
2025-02-23 1.875109 8.162776 26.451527 74.857387 185.978195 408.353849 855.290466
2025-03-02 1.634604 7.596161 25.701773 75.148786 191.403728 428.357873 911.751966
2025-03-09 1.453087 7.182615 25.300036 76.234389 198.638718 452.330265 976.920259
2025-03-16 1.097404 5.967004 22.340732 70.423513 189.806931 443.424611 978.398491